<p>On the occasion of the 80th session of the United Nations General Assembly, all eyes are once again on New York, where state representatives gather in an atmosphere rife with geopolitical disputes and escalating crises. This article reviews these crises and outlines five probable scenarios for the near future-a future that, more than ever, demands collective deliberation and decision-making.</p> <p><b>A. The Crises</b><br />1. The Decline, Inefficiency, and Dysfunction of International Institutions and Organizations<br /> In recent years, the inability of the United Nations and its affiliated bodies, particularly the UN Security Council, to equitably address and resolve various political and security crises has demonstrated that the international system's institutions are experiencing a downward trend of decline and ineffectiveness. Current organizations, institutions, and regimes in the political, economic, and security spheres are largely the result of the international system formed by the great powers after World War II. These institutions and regimes have not evolved to confront new threats such as the diffusion of power, the proliferation of non-state actors, threats in cyberspace, new power configurations, and hybrid warfare. This trend has led to increased tensions and a greater inclination to resort to military action to resolve disputes.</p> <p><br />New advancements in military technologies necessitate new laws or updated interpretations of existing ones. For example, the use of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in warfare by capable states has given rise to new threats, and laws and procedures to control such actions by governments have not been developed. The reality is that international institutions and regimes in the political, economic, and security spheres have not grown in synergy with the extensive changes and developments occurring in the domestic and external environments of states, the increase in actors, and, most importantly, the vast advancements in technology. This gap between laws and developments will become more evident in the coming years and decades, exposing the world to greater threats.</p> <p><br /><b>2. Emerging Security Threats</b><br /> In the world we inhabit, the nature of threats is constantly changing. Specifically, major global trends such as the emergence of globally active individuals, technological empowerment, resource scarcity and pressure, and shared environmental changes and threats have impacted the nature of security threats, thus demanding new and intelligent responses from states. Simultaneously, armed violence is increasing globally. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) estimates that approximately 740,000 people die annually as a result of armed violence, with over 66% of these casualties occurring in societies not affected by war.</p> <p><br /><b>3. Intensification of Hybrid Warfare</b><br /> Current trends and events show that actors in the international system are rapidly moving towards this type of warfare due to its extraordinary advantages. In recent years, this form of warfare has gained significant value as states and non-state actors employ information technology to dominate their enemies during, or—more importantly—in the absence of direct armed conflict. Hybrid warfare involves the interference or fusion of conventional and unconventional instruments of power and subversive tools below the threshold of armed conflict. These tools are combined in a coordinated manner to inflict maximum damage on the enemy. One of the great dangers of using hybrid warfare is the blurring of the line between war and peace. This means the threshold of war is difficult to discern. Compared to overt and direct war, hybrid warfare is easier, cheaper, and less risky than armed operations, which has made it attractive. Hybrid warfare is one of the most significant threats to nations now and in the near future.</p> <p><br /><b>4. Artificial Intelligence: Technology in the Service of War and Violence</b><br /> AI is advancing with increasing power and could disrupt current military balances. AI-based tools and systems possess specific characteristics that allow the nations owning these technologies to gain a greater competitive advantage and upset the balance of power in the international system. AI will disrupt the military balance by upsetting the principle of military deterrence. Currently, military deterrence is based on the premise that the recipient of a "first strike" retains a "second-strike" capability, is not annihilated by the first strike, and maintains the ability to retaliate. Technological advancements, including AI, raise concerns that this second-strike capability may be challenged in the coming years, meaning the strategy of deterrence will face a major challenge.</p> <p><br /><b>5. The Use of Sanctions as Political and Security Leverage</b><br /> The issue of sanctions, due to its importance as a global trend employed by great powers against each other and other actors, can also be examined as a new security threat to nations. If other major world economies develop alternative tools for international payments in response to America's overuse of economic sanctions, if coordination among US allies becomes more difficult, and if emerging economic powers open their financial sectors more than they are today, the United States' power to use its preferred coercive tool—economic sanctions—may diminish. Unfortunately, the power of sanctions regimes has not yet waned; rather, it manifests daily in new tools and methods. Daniel DePetris, an analyst for the New York Times, showed in a report in this regard that the US government's resort to sanctions has increased by 933 percent over the past two decades. DePetris wrote: "The United States views economic sanctions as the primary tool of foreign policy."</p> <p><br /><b>6. Intensifying Instability and War in Strategic Regions of the World</b><br />Great power competition, on one hand, and regional dynamics, on the other, have exacerbated global and regional insecurity. Great power competition has intensified in buffer zones like Eastern Europe and East Asia over the past few decades, leading to widespread instability. The Middle East and South Asia are two regions that have experienced greater instability in recent years, as evidenced by the wars following October 7th. The increase in weak, failing, or failed states has played a crucial role in creating power vacuums and the subsequent rush by regional powers to control them.</p> <p><br /><b>7. Increased Military Investment by Great and Emerging Powers</b> <br />A study and comparison of countries' military expenditures over the last decade show that global defense spending is on the rise. The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) reports that the increase in global military budgets since the beginning of 2020, compared to the early years of the third millennium, has unprecedentedly reached a record $2.5 trillion.</p> <p><br /><b>8. The Weakening of the State's Monopoly on the Use of Violence Non-state actors, thanks to transformations in military and</b> communication technologies, can destabilize governments with greater ease. As mentioned earlier, new technologies have provided actors in the international system (individuals, groups) with capabilities to impose the highest volume of violence with the greatest impact and damage on states, the primary actors in the international arena. Current developments and events in the international system indicate that this trend will also intensify sharply in the coming decades.</p> <p><br /><b>9. The Normative Deconstruction of Human Rights within the "Peace Through Strength" Discourse</b> <br />One of the most dangerous super-crises for humanity is the deconstruction of accepted norms among nations, which are, in a reverse process, turning into their own antithesis. In recent years, within the "peace through strength" discourse, the most self-evident human norms are not only being violated, but anti-human rights behaviors are even becoming accepted norms. The justification of crimes and even silence regarding the massacres and crimes against humanity committed by America and Israel in Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen, and the blatant aggression against Iran in the 12-day war, are examples of this dangerous trend. This trend, coupled with the inaction of international institutions, the endorsement of Western countries claiming to support human rights, and the silence of conservative governments, promises a very dangerous future for humanity.</p> <p><br /><b>10. Shared Environmental Threats</b> <br />Shared environmental threats at the global and regional levels include rising air temperatures, rising sea levels, drought, precipitation volatility, food shortages, the spread of pandemics, aging populations, mass migration, urbanization, and the imbalanced distribution of green technologies.</p> <p><br /><b>[B. Scenarios]</b><br />The outcome of the above trends will push the world towards the following dangerous scenarios in the coming years:<br />1. Competition between great and emerging powers for favorable positioning in the future international order. Efforts to gain influence and intervene in regions will intensify.</p> <p><br />2. The world will witness an increased role of hybrid warfare, with highly dangerous consequences for nations with less technological access.</p> <p><br />3. The world will see an increase in political and security instability on one hand, and an increase in failed and weak states in various regions on the other.</p> <p><br />4. Shared environmental threats at the global and regional levels—including rising air temperatures, rising sea levels, drought, precipitation volatility, food shortages, the spread of pandemics, aging populations, migration, urbanization, and the imbalanced distribution of green technologies—will confront the world with emerging threats.</p> <p><br />5. Alongside the decline of human rights norms, a hopeful scenario amidst this gloom is that: The world will witness a greater strengthening of the role of civil societies, international public opinion, and the media as deterrents against militarism.</p> <p><br /><b>Seyyed Mohammad Hosseini, Senior Expert at the Center for Political and International Studies</b><br /><b>(Responsibility for the content of this article rests with the author and does not reflect the views of the Center for Political and International Studies.)</b></p> <p></p>