Specialized Meeting with the Polish Institute of International Affairs
2022, separately with the two institutes OSW (Center for Oriental Studies) and the Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM).
The specialized meeting was held in Warsaw on February 24 and 26, 2022, separately with the two institutes OSW (Center for Oriental Studies) and the Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM).
The major topics discussed at the meeting are as follows:
A: The effects and consequences of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the reaction of the West;
B: Poland’s deep concern about the Ukraine crisis;
C: Challenges of the European Union in the area of energy, including fossil, nuclear and clean energies;
D: Agents of change in power and global competition in volatile regions;
E: China's role in the new global developments and cooperation with Europe;
F: JCPOA and Economic resilience against sanctions
G: Assessing the relations of the Middle East countries, especially Iran, with the European Union and the approaches of the 13th administration in foreign policy;
Some of the important points made in these meetings are as follows
* To some of the experts attending the meeting, the scale and speed of Russia’s military operation were shocking for the Ukrainian people. But despite the shock, we have been witnessing surge of patriotic sentiments and commitment to support the military through various ways (financial, material, and medical) among the people as well as their active participation in the battle.
* Now we have more than two million Ukrainians in our country and are ready to host one million more new refugees.
* Under the pretext of Nato expansion and deployment of military equipment, Russia invaded Ukraine from the eastern and southern direction, in gross violation of the international regulations, while Nato did not have considerable weapons in Eastern and Central Europe.
* Presently the European countries are focused on diversifying their energy sources and cutting back on dependence on Russia.
* There is still time and place left for diplomacy and bilateral talks based on the international regulations, and we believe implementing the previous agreements and addressing the security sensitivities of the regional countries are of paramount importance.
* Over the last two decades , the Black Sea has taken a security dimension by the role the US has been playing, leading to accumulation of weapons along the Black Sea costs and the region becoming the focal point of rivalry among the four powers of Russia, America, the EU, and Turkey in the third Millennium.
* As witnessed in the Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, and Yemen occupation, occupation has been of no avail and a failure in the recent decades.
*The foundation does not have the solidarity and integrity of the previous years, and at the same time, the Brussels tries to get past the limited challenges and preserve its geopolitical status on the world arena.
* The EU has to continue its growing trend of importing energy until 2030, and has put on the agenda three major strategies for its future energy plans aimed at guaranteeing energy security, promoting productivity and maximally adapting to the Environmental elements and in order for its energy policies to get successful it is urgent that it still be a vibrant and attractive market for the companies and in a time when competition over global energy sources has ramped up, new hybrid energy strategies, especially hydrogen energy, strengthen the policy-lines determined by the European Council.
* Given the fact that it is the biggest importer of energy over the world, the EU is so vulnerable to any threats to energy and the EU zone’s oil resources are limited , in proportion to the world’s resources at a lower level.
* Generally, the established reserves of the EU oil are less than 1% of the world’s and in addition its gas reserves are a mere 1.4% of the world’s reserves; also the coal resources constitutes 80% of Europe’s fossil reserves. These reserves, though compared to the world’s total solid and fossil resources having a little share, are of paramount importance for Europe. However, considering the EU expansion to the east of the green continent and discovery of new resources on the Black Sea and Mediterranean bed, there will probably be some changes in these percentages, especially in terms of gas.
* In the subject of nuclear energy exploitation, there is a different view in Europe, the French wing and some Central and Eastern European countries are in favor of expanding new nuclear power plants, and Germany and some other countries have Environmental reservations and favor more studies in this regard.
* Today China and the EU are two major trade and economic powers, in addition to the US, and Beijing has a special plan for the green continent. We are witnessing an uptick in China’s exports and imports to and from the EU, so that in 2020 yearend, China overtook the US and became the EU’s main trade partner. The EU imports from China went up in 2020 to 383.5 billion euros. Also, the EU exports in last year reached 202.5 billion euros. This is while the value of trade exchanges between the EU and US has been $555 billion last year, and therefore, the US is now the second major trade partner of the EU. Within the framework of the One Belt, One Road initiative, China has a strategic plan for economic, political and security presence in the world, Europe has a special state in this plan.
* In Central and Eastern Europe, the 17+1 talks and commitment to make investments related to the One Belt, One Road initiative, China intends to link itself to the EU markets through a gigantic project of infrastructure and transportation. China intends to import over $170 billion worth of goods from Central and Eastern European states (CEEC), and these countries are interested in deepening cooperation and are making efforts to double their exports to China, and increase the value of exports of agricultural products by 50% over the next 5 years. Mutual trade between China and 17 CEEC countries in 2020 went beyond $100 billion for the first time.
* At present, China is the main trade partner of Iran, the UAE being the second biggest, the exchanges with Russia amount to about $4 billion. Iran has finalized the 25 year long agreement with China, and there are great potentials for expanding mutual cooperation, and the experts are optimistic about the future of China investments in Iran, though defining and operationalizing these investment projects will take time.