Hexagonal Competition in Central Asia
The continuation of crises in West Asia and the conflict in Ukraine has brought about significant changes in the geopolitics of Eurasia. Central Asia as one of the regions peripheral to these crises and a key part of the Eurasian axis is one of the most prominent arenas for the manifestation of these changes.
The continuation of crises in West Asia and the conflict in Ukraine has brought about significant changes in the geopolitics of Eurasia. Central Asia, as one of the regions peripheral to these crises and a key part of the Eurasian axis, is one of the most prominent arenas for the manifestation of these changes.
This region, which has played an important role in the historical and civilizational trajectory of the world and the connection between the continents of Asia and Europe, is less known, particularly in Europe. Central Asia generally includes the five countries of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan; a rich mosaic of different ethnic groups and nations with significant natural and mineral resources. Although these countries are ethnically (Turkic-speaking) and religiously (Islam) linked and shared a largely common geopolitical destiny in the 20th century, the collapse of the Soviet Union and the subsequent era led to their differentiation at various levels.
Alongside the direct impact of regional crises, widespread changes in international norms and practices, especially with the approaches of governments like the Trump administration, have also created new conditions on the global stage and consequently in this region.
In such a transformative geopolitical context, six main regional and extra-regional actors have key influence and interests in relation to the Central Asian countries. These actors are: Russia, China, the European Union, the United States of America, the Islamic Republic of Iran, and Turkey. The role and interests of these actors will be briefly discussed below.
The Russian Federation
Russia has been the dominant player in Central Asia for several centuries. This dominance is rooted in the Soviet era, when the countries of the region were part of the Soviet Union. Recent events, such as the developments in Kazakhstan in early 2022, showed that Moscow still holds a prominent and decisive role in the region and is ready to intervene if necessary.
In addition to its military and political influence, Russia's identity and cultural role in the region are also very strong. The use of the Cyrillic alphabet, the prevalence of the Russian language, and the presence of significant Russian-speaking minorities are among the manifestations of these cultural ties. The military, economic, security relationships, and infrastructure of these countries are also deeply dependent on the Kremlin.
However, it is no secret that Russia's influence and impact have somewhat diminished under the repercussions of the war in Ukraine (the crisis surrounding the Black Sea). This situation has provided an opportunity for competing actors to increase their role and influence; particularly China, the United States, the European Union, Turkey, Iran, and even the Persian Gulf states.
It appears that, should a compromise and de-escalation of tensions in Ukraine become possible, Russia will soon attempt to regain a more prominent presence in Central Asia across various geopolitical and geo-economic dimensions.
Alongside the broader geopolitical and economic dimensions, another important factor plays a role in Russia's relations with Central Asia: the large flow of migrant workers. Russia remains the main destination for hundreds of thousands of Central Asian citizens who travel to the country annually for work, sending billions of dollars in remittances back to their home countries. China, for various reasons including considerations related to internal social stability, does not have the capacity or willingness to replace Russia in absorbing this volume of migrant labor.
China
China, as the largest global exporter and importer, enjoys significant economic advantages in Central Asia, as well as military and demographic potential. China's immense investment capacity, especially in the form of the "Belt and Road Initiative," is highly attractive to the countries in the region.
China's relations with the Central Asian countries are rooted in ancient shared history and are strengthened by cultural ties (the presence of related ethnic minorities on both sides) and deep economic relations. The Silk Road also serves as an important element, providing a shared historical identity to this region and China. These ties are so deep-rooted that they cannot be easily weakened or eliminated.
The importance of Central Asia for China is multifaceted. Beijing seeks to strengthen its influence in the region with clear objectives: securing its western borders against extremist groups, guaranteeing stable energy imports, maintaining and expanding the market for Chinese goods, and enabling investment in the region's key infrastructure.
The increasing volume of trade is clear evidence of the deepening economic ties between China and Central Asia. According to the General Administration of Customs of China, bilateral trade turnover last [Persian calendar] year [presumably 2024 at the time of writing] amounted to $94.8 billion, indicating a $5.4 billion increase compared to 2023.
This trade turnover among the region's countries is divided as follows: Kazakhstan holds the first place among China's trading partners in Central Asia with $43.8 billion (over 46%). Following it are Kyrgyzstan with $22.7 billion (24%), Uzbekistan with $13.7 billion (14.5%), Turkmenistan with $10.6 billion (11%), and Tajikistan with $3.8 billion (4%). These statistics clearly show the scale of China's economic influence in the region.
Turkey
Turkey's important role in Central Asia is rooted in deep ethnic, religious, and cultural ties with the region's Turkic-speaking population. Ankara also has a significant economic presence in these countries and is considered one of the main investors in the Central Asian republics.
Furthermore, regional developments [or: recent geopolitical developments] have contributed to strengthening Turkey's position in the region's dynamics. Turkey also plays an important role as a regional energy hub in the export routes for Central Asian energy. Turkey's political support for Central Asian countries acts as a factor for balancing their relations with larger powers such as China and Russia.
The importance of relations with Turkey for the Central Asian countries (especially Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan) is multifaceted: firstly, these relations are valuable due to access to Western markets and Turkey's support for multilateral approaches. Secondly, extensive military and security cooperation is also of great importance to these countries.
In addition to these dimensions, there are also significant tourism interactions between the parties.
The United States
This country's policy in the region is primarily focused on monitoring developments and utilizing these republics to balance relations with Moscow and Beijing. Washington also pays particular attention to military and security cooperation with the Central Asian governments. Notably, Washington's attention to this region has increased since the Ukraine crisis. Anthony Blinken's visits to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan in previous years can be analyzed in this regard. Nevertheless, the United States' diplomatic approach towards Central Asia has been embodied since 2015 in the diplomatic platform known as C5+1 (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, plus the United States).
The European Union
In recent years, the European Union has directed increasing attention towards Central Asia. The region is attractive to Europe as a burgeoning market for consumption, as well as a rich source of fossil fuels and various types of mineral resources.
Europe's engagement with Central Asia has two layers: both bilateral cooperation by EU member states and the pursuit of a comprehensive cooperation program by the EU's own institutions.
In line with this and to advance this agenda, a summit between the heads of the five Central Asian countries and the European Union was held in March 2025. At this summit, a comprehensive bilateral cooperation document was signed across four key pillars. Additionally, several agreements were signed, including Brussels' commitment of $13 billion in aid to the five countries of the region and the confirmation of a $10 billion investment commitment by European banks in Central Asia.
The Islamic Republic of Iran
The relations between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the republics of Central Asia, despite deep cultural and civilizational commonalities, have undergone various phases since the collapse of the Soviet Union. However, the significant existing capacities for the expansion and development of these relations had not been fully utilized.
Iran possesses important capabilities for cooperation with these countries. These capabilities include the export of technical and engineering services, the supply of consumer goods, and especially a key role in energy and goods transit.
However, it appears that in the last two years, particularly following our country's membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), we have witnessed significant steps to strengthen relations with all five republics. Numerous visits by the highest officials (including the Iranian President's visits to most of these countries and reciprocal visits by high-ranking Central Asian officials), a significant increase in trade volume, and the strengthening of defense and security interactions are among the main indicators of this development.
In a brief summation, it must be said that despite significant commonalities, the republics of Central Asia do not have a unified voice and are in a kind of undeclared competition, mostly engaged in the process of testing the nature of their interaction with the aforementioned important actors; although Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan are more active in engaging with Western countries. The region has not reached a promising balance and stability, and currently, all these states share a common concern regarding extremism and terrorism resulting from the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan. The option of cooperation, particularly with Russia, China, and the Islamic Republic of Iran alongside Turkey, in the process of changing the global and regional order can be effective in addressing these countries' multifaceted concerns and ensuring regional stability and peace.
Ali Beman Eghbali Zarch, Head of the Eurasian Studies Group
(The opinions expressed are those of the authors and do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of the IPIS)