Occupation is a Major Future Danger for Syria - Tehran Dialogue Forum 2025

In the panel titled Syria at a Crossroads: Towards Unity or Division? Olivier Waltz head of the German think tank CEDITA elaborated on his perspectives. As a prominent expert on Syrian affairs his background includes humanitarian activities and holding meetings with various groups including the Syrian opposition.

In the panel titled "Syria at a Crossroads: Towards Unity or Division?", Olivier Waltz, head of the German think tank CEDITA, elaborated on his perspectives. As a prominent expert on Syrian affairs, his background includes humanitarian activities and holding meetings with various groups, including the Syrian opposition.

In his remarks, Waltz said, "The answer to some questions is not easy, and one would have to be a prophet to predict Syria's future. However, I personally do not fear for the future of this country."

He concluded by emphasizing, "What Syria urgently needs today is unity. Special focus must be placed on internal developments, including the role of political and social activists, critics, and all ethnic groups."

Waltz continued, "There are two serious issues in the discussion on Syria. First is the formation of a state, and we must see how it is possible to move towards a comprehensive and inclusive government. One of the most important issues for Syrians is the reconstruction of Syria. Topics such as elections, human rights, ethnic groups, the constitution, and the occupation of parts of the country... all of these are contingent upon the existence of an inclusive and elected government." The researcher of Syrian and Levantine affairs stated that all of Syria's ethnic, religious, and political groups have their own distinct identities, emphasizing that they do not have a single, unified identity and have been suppressed until now. Waltz stressed, "Efforts must be made for Syrian ethnic groups to rediscover their identity and achieve self-confidence. They now expect the new government to respect their rights."

In response to a question posed by Ferdosipour, a West Asia expert and the panel's moderator, who asked if it was possible to establish a strong and inclusive government by the new rulers under the shadow of occupation, Olivier Waltz stated: "From the perspective of Syria's political leadership, there are numerous issues that will challenge the new, inexperienced rulers. Overcoming these problems will naturally be time-consuming, and they will move towards solving them slowly."

Syria's strategic position has attracted the covetous eyes of world powers. Subsequently, Adnan Mansour, a former diplomat and Lebanon's Minister of Foreign Affairs and Emigrants, spoke about the major future dangers for Syria and evaluated the results of the meeting between Ahmad al-Sharaa and President Trump in Riyadh. Mansour stated, "The interference and opinions of all powers have had a direct and indirect impact on Syria, and these interventions and external developments have always had numerous consequences for political events within Syria." Analyzing the strategic position of Syria and Lebanon, he added, "This strategic location of the Levantine countries has always attracted the covetous eyes of Russia, America, Turkey, France, and others. For this reason, the geographical, historical, and ethnic dimensions of this region must always be taken into account. Syria has always been under the observation and microscope of powers and strategists."

The senior former Lebanese diplomat went on to point out a crucial fact: that the foundations for the current developments in Syria were laid in the year 2000. He added, "These developments had been studied and analyzed in Western think tanks and strategic centers. On one hand, the presence of the United States, the Zionist regime, Russia, and others in Syria has exacerbated numerous insecurities and security issues leading to instability. The Zionist regime has taken full advantage of this instability, carrying out multiple aggressions and transgressions against Syria and Lebanon. A clear example is the occupation of the Golan Heights, and the most recent case was the incursion of more than 40 kilometers deep into Syrian territory by the Zionist army after Ahmad al-Sharaa's forces came to power."

The former Lebanese Foreign Minister responded to a question posed by Mojtaba Ferdosipour, a senior expert at the Center for Political Studies, which was as follows: "Will the connections of Syria's Druze Christians with elements of power outside Syria lead to the country's fragmentation or prevent it?" Adnan Mansour replied, "Developments indicate that the region, and especially Syria, is moving towards fragmentation. In Syria, the government must consider the Alawites near the Mediterranean coast, the Druze in the Golan region and areas south of Damascus, the Turkmen near the Turkish border, and the Kurdish opposition. Meanwhile, Iraq has also been divided into three parts—Kurdish, Sunni, and Shiite—and the great powers have even drawn up plans for the division of Iran."