Operation of the Century Deep in Russia: In Kyivs Name to NATOs Benefit
Western military analysts have described Ukraines recent attacks on Russias strategic bomber fleet as one of the countrys most audacious operations of the entire war. These attacks carried out with 117 drones thousands of kilometers from the front lines inflicted an estimated $6 to $7 billion in damage to this advanced military hardware. It is noteworthy that these bombers alongside land-based and submarine-launched missiles form a part of Russias nuclear triad and the worlds largest atomic arsenal.
Western military analysts have described Ukraine's recent attacks on Russia's strategic bomber fleet as one of the country's most audacious operations of the entire war. These attacks, carried out with 117 drones thousands of kilometers from the front lines, inflicted an estimated $6 to $7 billion in damage to this advanced military hardware. It is noteworthy that these bombers, alongside land-based and submarine-launched missiles, form a part of Russia's nuclear triad and the world's largest atomic arsenal.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who personally oversaw the operation, stated that this success has significantly helped restore international partners' confidence in Ukraine's capabilities. Highlighting creative tactics such as concealing drones in the wooden roofs of trucks, he emphasized: "Ukraine will not surrender, and no ultimatum will affect Kyiv's will to continue the fight." Zelenskyy concluded, "We do not want to continue the war, but the enemy has no intention of stopping either; therefore, we demonstrated our strength."
In this regard, a United States government official stated that neither President Trump nor the White House had been notified of the attack. A former government official in Kyiv also said that Ukraine, for operational security reasons, does not typically inform Washington of its plans for such actions. Concurrently, a British government official stated that their government had not been informed of the operation in advance.
Following these attacks, retired Lieutenant General Andrey Gurulev, a Duma deputy and former critic of the Russian Ministry of Defense, harshly reprimanded the country's special services for their failure to protect the airbases and for allowing the drone infiltration. At the same time, other Russian military analysts believe that senior commanders, relying on the vast distance of critical military installations from Ukraine's borders, continue to neglect the need for their serious protection. This is the same mindset that has previously led to major failures and exposed Ukraine's ability to violate Russian airspace and borders.
From a strategic perspective, the loss of 40 strategic bombers in a single day—equivalent to one-third of the entire fleet—carries extremely significant implications. These attacks, which directly targeted Russia's strategic nuclear potential, raise concerns that Moscow, based on its nuclear doctrine, might see the grounds for using atomic weapons.
Of course, throughout the war, Russia has consistently used the nuclear threat, particularly through statements by Dmitry Medvedev, as a tool to limit Western military aid to Kyiv and weaken Ukraine's offensive capabilities. In this vein, after the United States gave a green light to Ukraine's long-range attacks in November 2024, Vladimir Putin signed Russia's updated nuclear doctrine. This action was also part of Moscow's effort to persuade Western policymakers to cease their support for Ukraine.
The ability to advance technologically, possess robust intelligence, and act boldly to reverse military trends that many observers considered settled are significant hallmarks of the Ukraine conflict. Ukraine's initial use of attack drones in 2023 has evolved into a large-scale tactic, allowing it to survive Russia's grueling infantry assaults along long and perilous fronts. Ukraine has also utilized naval drones to attack Russia's valuable Black Sea Fleet. Importantly, these drone operations have not fundamentally altered the battlefield situation; Russia continues to advance slowly and shows no genuine interest in a ceasefire or peace, as the core concerns of Ukraine and Russia are fundamentally different and widely divergent.
For Moscow, the priority is durable security and defense guarantees based on halting NATO expansion and the demilitarization of Ukraine. Kyiv, in contrast, seeks a return to pre-war conditions, the intensification of sanctions, and the continuation of its integration process with NATO. Therefore, it must be said that Kyiv will not accept any limitations on its military forces after a potential peace agreement, nor will it accept any international recognition of Russian sovereignty over parts of Ukraine occupied by Moscow's forces, while also demanding reparations.
Meanwhile, President Zelenskyy has repeatedly called on the United States and President Donald Trump to impose stricter sanctions on Russia should Moscow block peace negotiations. Concurrently, the US Senate Republican Leader stated that work would soon begin on a bill to impose severe sanctions on Russia and secondary sanctions on countries trading with Russia due to the war in Ukraine, adding, "We are prepared to provide President Trump with all the necessary tools to finally bring Russia to the negotiating table."
On the other hand, in peace talks last Monday, Russia informed Ukraine that it would only agree to end the war if Kyiv cedes new, large areas of its territory, accepts numerical limits on its army, lifts martial law, and holds presidential and parliamentary elections within 100 days.
In summary, it can be said that "Operation Spider's Web" has pushed the Ukraine war into a new phase—one that will undoubtedly influence the future tactics of both sides in this campaign.
However, the design and execution of an operation of this complexity appear to be beyond Ukraine's independent capabilities, and it is highly probable that military advisors and specialists from NATO member states played a key role. Another factor in this success should not be overlooked: Russia's significant intelligence-security weaknesses and its negligence in protecting its strategic centers, which contributed substantially to this heavy loss.
Ultimately, these developments indicate that the battle in the war's geography continues with intensity, and the strategic competition between Russia and the Euro-Atlantic axis will remain steadfast at a transcontinental level.
Ali Beman Eghbali Zarch, Head of the Eurasia Studies Group
(The opinions expressed are those of the authors and do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of the IPIS)