The Future of the JCPOA: Possible Ramifications

The world today is experiencing a serious challenge that is affecting every nation. The COVID-۱۹ pandemic has changed the entire world in myriad ways; causing mayhem in the four corners of the world as the number of deaths and those infected by the virus is rapidly rising. Nobody knows how long the pandemic is going to last.
6 July 2020
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Majid Takht-Ravanchi

The world today is experiencing a serious challenge that is affecting every nation. The COVID-19 pandemic has changed the entire world in myriad ways; causing mayhem in the four corners of the world as the number of deaths and those infected by the virus is rapidly rising. Nobody knows how long the pandemic is going to last. An effective and safe vaccine is yet to be available.

 The world economy is in deep crisis. We are facing the most severe economic and financial meltdowns, unprecedented since the Great Depression. The world order is in disarray. Multilateralism is on the decline, and nationalistic tendencies are on the rise. What are the consequences of this chaos for international relations?

 It is too early to predict what will transpire when this pandemic will finally end and the virus contained. However, one thing is clear: unilateral tendencies cannot solve the problems of today’s interdependent world.

While the international community has been occupied as to how it can better be equipped to combat the pandemic, the U.S. is following its own narrow-minded agenda of unilateralism in order to secure its interests. In the case of Iran, the U.S. is intensifying its illegal sanctions against us, disregarding international calls made by the U.N. Secretary-General, heads of states, parliamentarians and NGOs to lift the sanctions so as to enable Iran to more effectively combat the pandemic and prevent suffering, as well as prevent the spread of the Covid 19 virus in the region. This immoral policy stems from the U.S.’s addiction to sanctions and the illusion that Iran is on the verge of collapse.

U.S. animosity toward Iran, though, is not limited to economic pressure. The U.S. administration is also working diligently in the U.N. Security Council to deliver a final blow to the JCPOA. It is worth mentioning here how the U.S. has been dealing with the Iran nuclear agreement in the last two years.

 In contravention of its international obligations, the U.S. withdrew from the JCPOA almost two years ago and imposed the harshest sanctions ever on Iran. U.S. objectives were clear and twofold: to bring about regime change in Iran, or to bring Iran to its knees and force it to sit down with the U.S. to conclude a new agreement based on new U.S. terms. Neither has materialized. Since May 2018, the U.S.’s “maximum pressure policy” on Iran has failed. It has  created economic hardship for the Iranian people, but has neither caused economic collapse, nor will it in the future. This policy has instead united the people of Iran and deepened Iranian resentment of the American government.

 At first, the U.S. withdrawal from the JCPOA brought about certain economic hardships for the country as Iran patiently waited for a year to receive economic benefits promised in the accord, but to no avail. Therefore, Iran was forced to resort to the relevant articles of JCPOA and reduce its commitments in order to make a necessary balance in the deal, and preserve it. That has been Iran’s policy ever since, fully in compliance with the accord and with UNSC Resolution 2231.

 In the next few months, however, the U.S. will try to introduce a resolution in the Security Council to block the lifting of the arms restrictions against Iran due to expire in October. Adoption of this resolution in the Council would be in contravention of Resolution 2231 which endorsed the JCPOA and enshrined it in international law. The lifting of restrictions on the Iran’s import and export of armaments is part of the deal agreed to five years ago and which cannot be ignored or postponed. Iran has stated on different occasions that anything less than the removal of military restrictions is unacceptable.

 The U.S. has stated that in the event that its sponsored above-mentioned resolution does not pass, it will act as a JCPOA Participant and invoke the provisions of Resolution 2231 to snap- back the previous Security Council resolutions on Iran. That is a preposterous proposition and a mockery of international law and regulations, with serious ramification for the credibility of the Security Council. It is worth mentioning a few facts here:

on May 8, 2018, President Trump said that the U.S. “ceased participation” in the JCPOA. Since then, and in violation of resolution 2231, it has imposed sanctions on Iran and has not participated in Joint Commission meetings attended by all JCPOA Participants. Hence, the U.S. has no legal argument to be among the “Participants”.

 There can be no doubt that keeping military restrictions in place is in contravention of Resolution 2231, and a snap-back of previous resolutions will be in violation of both the JCPOA and Resolution 2231. In both cases, Iran has stated that its reaction will be severe and no option will be off the table.

I wish to make three observations here:

1) The application of the U.S.’ “maximum pressure” policy has not resulted in what hardliners in Washington have openly desired; hence they are doing everything possible to kill the JCPOA before a possible new administration comes into office in January.

2) Europe needs to make up its mind when it comes to the JCPOA and resolution 2231. If the Europeans expect the JCPOA to be fully implemented, they have to stand up to U.S. bullying. Their policy of appeasement has not worked, and will not work in the future.

3) The demise of JCPOA will not bring about a better future for the international community. It will breed more instability in our region.

Whether the U.S. likes it or not, Iran is an indispensable player in the region and cannot be eliminated from regional equations. Its potentials are vast. Despite the economic difficulties of the past two years resulting from U.S. policy and compounded by the global pandemic that has hit Iran especially severely, the majority of Iranians still support the political system because they trust that their government does not march to the orders of outsiders; a gauge that has been instrumental for Iranian citizens as they have judged different governments and systems in the last 150 years.

In 2015, two years after President Rouhani entered office, the JCPOA was agreed to. The U.S. withdrawal from the nuclear deal, and the lack of necessary resolve and enthusiasm on the part of the EU to step in and compensate Iran’s losses, have not only further tarnished the image of the West in Iran, but perhaps much more importantly, have badly damaged Iranians’ belief in the usefulness of engagement with America and Europe. This attitude is manifest on the streets of Tehran and other cities.

In conclusion, Western countries should think twice before undertaking adventurism, something that will neither benefit them nor anyone else. The world will instead be much better off, and more secure, if respect for international law and agreements is the natural order of the day.

 

(The opinions expressed are those of the authors and do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of the IPIS)

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