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Studying US Foreign Policy Trends after November Election

Results obtained from the US presidential elections can be interpreted as the American people's will for the change of the trends in both internal and external policy areas in this country. Considering Trump's four-year-long performance as the president of the US, the policy trend in the Biden era will be focused on domestic affairs, especially saving the country from the consequences of the corona pandemic spread, and then, onto east Asia ,especially in preserving the US economic interests in interaction with China, multilateral approaches and respect to the international institutes. The condition for formation such trends is, at first, the peaceful transition of power inside the US.
December 2020
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Mojtaba Ferdowsipour

Results obtained from the US presidential elections can be interpreted as the American people's will for the change of the trends in both internal and external policy areas in this country. Considering Trump's four-year-long performance as the president of the US, the policy trend in the Biden era will be focused on domestic affairs, especially saving the country from the consequences of the corona pandemic spread, and then, onto east Asia ,especially in preserving the US economic interests in interaction with China, multilateral approaches and respect to the international institutes. The  condition for formation such trends  is, at first, the peaceful transition of power inside the US.

Results of the US presidential elections can be interpreted as the American people's will for the change of the trends in both internal and external policy areas in this country. In studying the foreign policy trends in the US, at a glimpse we can see two approaches of "domination" and " restraint" have constantly served as tools for advancing the goals of these policies. Therefore, sometimes, the US government has achieved these goals byutilizing its capability of having the most powerful army in the world and relying on pressure and militarism. On other occasions, too, to overcome the internal economic problems, cutting back on military expenses has been put on the agenda of the US decision makers, thus, employing peaceful tools have been preferred over military tools, which in turn, is the concept of endorsing the " restraint" trend in exercising foreign policy.

Principally, the goal of the US foreign policy must be founded on the argument of its decision makers and rulerswhich is based on preserving this country's power and security. However, since the world war two, the US has adopted policies for achieving the unattainable goal of global dominance, which have been both difficult and too costly to pursue, and at the same time in many cases inadaptable to its needs in the security area.

In the midst of this and during the most recent US administration, the losses incurred by not abiding the international commitments triggered by withdrawing from the international institutes, exacerbated by and in the background ofthe Covid-19 pandemic, have become influential factors in formation of a demand for realization of the change process which hereunder some of its parametersare referred to.

  • General Trends of Foreign Policy in Biden Era

Despite the US foreign policy trends during the era in which the warlords led the decision making process, in the Biden term the propelling decision maker will be the institution of the US foreign policy. Therefore, it has to be noted, the white house positions will be more aligned with the foreign ministry compared to the Trump era. In other words, the new trends will show a competitive trend vis-à-vis before the November election'. for this reason , in the Biden era, the white house politicians will try to restore their traditional treaties with the west Europe and north America zones and return to the behavioral bylaw based on respect to the international institutes and policies revolving around multilaterism. Also, they will welcome immigration, climatechange, foreign trade and JCPOA policies.

The approach of avoidance from foreign crises with the aim of focusing on domestic affairs, especially cleansing the negative impacts of Covid-19 pandemic from the US economic trends, construction of a domestic government and removing pressure from the industry and foreign trade sectors will be the criteria for the performance of the democrats. In this between,  taking pressure of the Trump era off the US trade partners in Asia and the Pacific regions will be the leading policies. Therefore, the policy of engaging with China along with limited engagement with Iran based on the Obama era trends and contrary to the hostility in the Trump era, together with restoring the multilateral policies will be pursued.

  • Biden's Foreign Policy Trends in West Asia

Based on the existing evidence, the trend of cutting military relation with west Asia (the middle east) will be continued along with the policy of scaling down military presence in the region. Thus, by reducing concentration on Europe and west Asia, the US will move toward east Asia especially China.

In the event of this, there is no doubt, some Arab rulers of the middle east should not be happy about the trend change under the Biden administration. Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Egypt are among those states which will not be especially regarded as in the Trump era. Although their human rights records will not be used against them as a priority, but deescalating the current situation between Saudi Arabia and Yemen based on dialogue and political mechanisms will be appreciated.

Turkey's concerns regarding sheltering Fethullah Gulen by the US democratsand the approach of reducing the domination of the AK party, on one side, and impeding Turkey's policies in west Asia and the Caucasus, on the other side, do not project a clear landscape for this country regarding the continuation of the Trump era trends.

In this context, return to the Obama era policy and ignoring the pressure policies of Israel and its allies in the region along with return to the JCPOA are the prediction of the diplomatic and elite circles.

But regarding the Palestine problem, cooperation with the Palestinian national authority, parallel with backing the US embassy transition to Jerusalem and the Golan Heights occupation by Israel, will continue. In the meantime, the Deal of Century peace planwill be withdrawn from the white house agenda and the compromise and normalization of the Arab/ Israeli relations will be pursued.

Conclusion:

No doubt, the policy trends in the Biden era will be focused on domestic affairs, especially saving the economy from the corona crisis, and after that, paying attention to east Asia , especially preserving the US economic interests in interacting with China as well as multilateral approaches and respect to the international institutes. However, formation of such trends depends, first, on the calm and peaceful transition of power inside the United States of America.

   (The opinions expressed are those of the authors and do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of the IPIS)

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