Generally speaking, Biden’s victory and changes in the White House, due to the mantra of focusing on democratic values, Washington and Moscow relations, and especially prioritizing expanding ties with the western part of the green continent have not been warmly embraced by Central and Eastern Europe, something which will lead to undermining populism.

Biden’s victory brought some psychological calm to the Western Europe capitals; because Trump’s presidential term wreaked havoc in the relations on two sides of the Atlantic and many European leaders are waiting to amend their ties with the US, after the new president enters the White House. Following Biden’s victory announcement in the US presidential election, a flood of congratulatory messages kept coming from the European leaders on the other side of the Atlantic. In the most important message, Angela Merkel spoke of the Transatlantic friendship, “ irreplaceable and vital for overcoming today’s challenges” ,and Emanuel Macron stressed that it was time for the US and EU to work together; because “ They have much to do.” Also Josep Borell, the EU High representative for Foreign Affairs, talked of “a wonderful day for the US and EU,” and need for rebuilding partnership. Most of the messages were sent to the Biden team publicly or over the phone. While Western Europe is anticipating the next four years, moving east, we see different reactions. Beyond countries like Hungary, Poland, and Slovenia whose leaders embraced Trump, Biden’s victory has produced more questions for central and eastern Europe (CEE) capitals. The reason is so simple and clear. The reality is that, despite rhetoric, trump intensified confrontational positions and behavior against Europe and the European Union and increased cooperation with central and Eastern Europe.

After Biden’s election, some countries in central and eastern Europe are worried about Obama-era policies. The cause of these concerns is that once these regional states warned the Obama administration about Russia’s continuing threat, but Washington sacrificed regional interests for Moscow’s collaboration. In June 2009, leaders like Václav Havel and Lech Wałęsa sent a joint letter to Obama, outlining threats of resetting ties with Moscow , but such measures were to no avail and after several months, Obama set aside plans for building a missile defense shield in Central Europe , leading to the relations on both sides of the Atlantic massively retreating. When Trump took office in 2017, again the US focused on Central and Eastern Europe. He believed that the region was a place for Moscow and Beijing to challenge the US-led world order, in addition, the appointment of Aaron Wess Mitchell as Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs in 2017 and his views about the necessity for prioritizing relations with the CEE were highly influential.

During the Trump term active cooperation between the US and Eastern Europe in terms of diplomacy, security, digital communication and economy strengthened. Also, Washington considerably supported the Three Seas Initiative (SI3), the goal of which being strengthening trans-border energy connections, transportation and digital infrastructures among the twelve countries surrounded by the Adriatic, Baltic and Black seas. Instead of considering this project as a European internal affair, Trump tried to compete with China and Russia. The reality is Biden’s main partners in Europe will be Berlin, Brussels and Paris. But this does not mean that the eastern Europe capitals will worriedly watch Biden’s entrance . Of course despite some optimism, return to the previous conditions is far from easy; because inside the EU, as said by the head of the foreign affairs committee, the state of affairs will not go ahead as wished by some European leaders like the French president or the German chancellor. Thus, Europe has to shake itself up and move especially in economic and defense terms toward self-sufficiency and reduce dependence on America, and in an optimistic approach, it is necessary for Europe to pursue its strategic autonomy. For now, most politicians do not believe in the need for distancing Europe from the US and maintain that the illusion of the European strategic autonomy must be ended; because the Europeans are unable to find a substitute for the vital role America plays as supplier of security, especially in the short and mid-terms. Generally speaking, when compared to the Trump era, some changes are definite. At least Europe is sure that Biden will not take abrupt decisions and when it comes to deciding on international issues he will inform, negotiate and coordinate with his allies. This former vice president with Irish and French roots knows Europe better and has much experience in the international politics and is familiar with most Obama-era European leaders.

Energy and especially nuclear energy will be in the American focus, due to Beijing and Moscow’s efforts to use this region to expand influence in Central Europe. In recent years, China Russia and America have offered plans to build new nuclear reactors in the region. In 2014, the Hungarian government chose the Rosatom State Nuclear Energy Corporation without a public tender, to develop the two new reactors of the Paks nuclear power plant. In Czech Republic, there are ongoing negotiations to allow the Russian and Chinese companies to build new reactors for the Dukovany power plant. It is expected that the Russian proposal can be technically and financially competed. It seems, Poland has already chosen the US to become its main partner in building six to nine nuclear reactors. Also Washington is close to finalizing a nuclear energy cooperation agreement with Romania and a number of other countries , although these agreements are mostly not binding.

Changes in the White House have in a way worried Russia’s neighboring countries, especially the Baltic republics and Romania. In the western Balkans and the Kosovo crisis Trump’s imposed measures on Belgrade and Pristina will unravel. Also Biden, despite the transactional and pragmatic approach of Trump, will more stress the shared liberal and civil society values like democracy, human rights and law abiding in relations with partners. Therefore, some countries like Hungary and Poland may be criticized by the new American administration when taking steps as anti- liberal democratic principles. The Polish opposition, first, will want Biden to adopt a peaceful way and encourage the Warsaw government to grant more concessions to the country’s domestic opposition. Hungary may pose a bigger question mark; in particular, if Budapest insists on continuing its behavior against Washington’s interests in a wider way in some foreign policy areas like in Ukraine and Turkey without a constructive relation. Overall, Biden’s victory will undermine populist approaches in Central and Eastern Europe, and the democrats taking office will revive a new era of responsibility and accountability.

 Ali Beman Eghbalizarch, Senior Expert at European Studies

(The opinions expressed are those of the authors and do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of the IPIS)