The two last months of 2020 reminded us of the 25th anniversary of the Dayton Peace Agreement which ended a bloody war in Bosnia and Herzegovina (1992-1995) , an event for which various ceremonies were held in Bosnia and Herzegovina and some other countries and a number of figures made statements about, namely the US president-elect, Bill Clinton the former US president , the UN general secretary, the Nato general secretary, the Turkish president, the foreign ministers of Russia and the UK, High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy and the EU General Affairs Council.
For this purpose, the paper below has tried to address some of the challenges and achievements which this agreement produced over the last 25 years for Bosnian society.
- Achievements:
The most important achievement of the Dayton agreement was termination of a four-year war which resulted in the death of over 100,000 people.
- Keeping Bosnia and Herzegovina’s Territorial Integrity
According to the former Yugoslavia’s constitution of 1974, Bosnia and Herzegovina was among the republics which had the right to independence. Therefore, chief among the achievements of the Dayton agreement was keeping territorial integrity in a way that the current borders of the country are the same geographical zone of Bosnia and Herzegovina in former Yugoslavia.
Ethnic cleansing was the aim of the extremist Serbs in the lands under their occupation and among the aims of the Dayton agreement was facilitating the return of refugees to the lands they inhabited before the war. Although due to numerous economic, social and security reasons, realizing this goal had a long distance to go to achieve a desired level, but return of some of the refugees is considered among the positive impacts of the Dayton agreement.
- Prosecuting and Punishing Some of War Criminals
Following the Dayton agreement, the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY) was formed and started prosecuting and convicting some of the war criminals to life imprisonment or long term prison sentences.
- Challenges
- Creating an Unconventional and Ineffective Political Structure
The Dayton agreement practically divided the country into two entities, including the Republic of Srpska and the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, each having their own particular administrative and legal structure. Also at the national level, a three member presidential council consisting of the representatives of the three ethnicities including Bosniak , Serb and Croat was formed which bestows veto power on decisions and referring them to the parliament of the objecting member for final decision to each of the three members, naturally taking decision on many issues winding up in a dead-end. Allotment of the posts in the ministers’ council is another mark for sharing power along ethnic lines, which with regard to the conflicting interests of the ethnicities, taking and enforcing decisions naturally will face numerous hurdles.
2- Failure in “Nation Building”
Strengthening of ethnic delimitation in the Dayton structure led to the agreement failing not only in integrating the three ethnic groups and completing the “nation building” process, but in some cases led to aggravating the distinctions among them.
3- Presence and Dominance of Foreign Political, Military and Judicial Forces
Presence and dominance of foreign political, military and judicial forces which have been institutionalized according to the Dayton agreement have brought about some sort of semi-international protectorate for Bosnia and Herzegovina.
- Office of the High Representative: This office is responsible for overseeing efficient implementation of civilian aspects of the Dayton Peace Agreement.
It has to be noted that over recent years the Serbs, with support from Russia, have protested to the continuation of the activity of the High Representative and frequently asked for shutting down the office.
- Foreign Military Forces
Bosnia and Herzegovina owes part of its security over the last quarter century to foreign military forces’ presence in the country in the form of (IFOR), and then (SFOR) and from 2004 on, in the form of (EUFOR). The responsibility of these multinational forces is reacting to any security challenges all over Bosnia and Herzegovina, although over time the number of these forces has decreased.
- Foreign Adjudication
In the Bosnian judicial system there is a constitutional court consisting of 2 Bosniaks, 2 Serbs, 2 Croats and three judges selected by the President of the European Court of Human Rights. The judges selected by the President of the European Court of Human Rights cannot be citizens of Bosnia and Herzegovina or of any neighboring state.
- Growing Separatist Tendencies and Anti-Dayton Demands
Ineffectiveness of the Bosnian political structure and continuation of ethnic conflicts have led to separatist inclinations and demands contrary to the Dayton agreement increasing in recent years, an example of which being the frequent statements made by Milorad Dodik, a Serb member of the Bosnia and Herzegovina Presidential Council, broaching every day the “necessity for separation.”
- Foreign Forces’ Presence and Competition, Including regional or Global
Special relations of neighboring countries with related ethnic groups are a matter recognized in the Dayton agreement and in practice many Serb and Croat Bosnians have dual Serbian and Croatian nationality.
The US has the largest foothold in Bosnia, among world’s big powers. It is worth noting that during Trump term, some Bosnian leaders were worried about change of approaches of the US toward their country and with regard to the unpredictable personality of Trump, special ties between Putin and Trump, and Trump’s hostility toward the democratic party legacy, the Dayton Peace Agreement being one of which, there were concerns of an abrupt shift of the US policies toward Bosnia, but Biden’s election increased hopes for continuation of the former US policies.
Russia is another global power which has an active presence in the western Balkans and Bosnia and Herzegovina as a traditional ally and supporter of Serbia, the close relation between Putin and Dodik being evidence.
Also, German, the UK, France, Italy and Austria have active presence in Bosnia and developing Chinese economic presence in Bosnia and the Balkans is evident.
Among the Muslim countries, Turkey with historical presence since the Ottoman empire, has considerable influence, the evidence of which being numerous activities by institutes associated with Turkey, structural connection between the Islamic Community of Bosnia and Herzegovina and the Presidency of Religious Affairs of Turkey, granting economic advantages in agricultural products and purchase of livestock to Bosnia as well as investment in building high stakes projects such as the Belgrade- Sarajevo Highway and strong Turkish forces’ presence in EUFOR.
Also, Saudi Arabia has had investments in economic and cultural sectors, which the Fahad mosque in Sarajevo and some big tourist and trade centers in the city are symbols of which. Qatar and Kuwait too are other Arab states which have considerable presence in Bosnia.
Also, the Islamic Republic of Iran which, due to its courageous, generous and comprehensive support during the war had a unique role in supporting the oppressed Bosnian Muslims and survival of the country, has had an active role in the political and cultural sectors and several education and research centers related to Iran are offering cultural services to the Bosnian people.
- Obstacles in Bosnia’s Way to Joining the EU and Nato
Although there is apparent consensus as to joining the EU among the three ethnic groups in Bosnia, structural, economic, judicial, military and other hurdles have slowed down the move on this path.
Bosnia’s membership in Nato is among the controversial issues in recent years. The Serbs are against membership, and generally it seems as long as there is a confrontation between Russia and Nato and Serbia is reluctant to join the Nato, the Bosnian Serbs will continue their obstructionist actions in the way of Bosnia joining the Nato.
- Economic and Social Crises
After 25 years from the Dayton agreement, Bosnia is still suffering from numerous economic and social crises, the causes of which are lack of investment in infrastructure projects, migration of skilled young workforce and a high rate of unemployment.
It is worth noting that based on the national census in 2013, the Bosnian population was 3,531,159, which compared to the 1991 census shows an 800,000 drop, a trend seeming to be aggravated over the last 7 years.
Conclusion:
The challenges arisen over the last quarter century after the enforcement of the Dayton agreement in Bosnia and Herzegovina which hamper the emergence of a nation-state with conventional standards, show that if the identity-ethnic fault lines and political-cultural schisms are not properly brought together and divergence and confrontation substitute integration and interaction, not only will bloody and bitter incidents ensue, but even after peace is established and two decades elapse, destructive impacts will ensue that will destroy many opportunities for development and progress and increase foreign powers’ greed and influence.
Mahmoud Haydari, Senior Expert at IPIS
(The opinions expressed are those of the authors and do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of the IPIS)