The African continent, with its unique geopolitical characteristics and significant geo-economic components, has become a pivotal arena for the strategic competition of current emerging powers across various dimensions. Comprising 54 independent nations and a population exceeding 1.4 billion people, it is recognized as a key region within the global economy. Africa, endowed with rich natural resources, a young workforce, and burgeoning markets, has emerged as an attractive destination for international investments. Nevertheless, challenges such as inadequate infrastructure, political instability, and a dependence on raw material exports present complexities in the continent's development trajectory.

Part 1: Africa's Economic Outlook in the Next Fifty Years: Opportunities and Challenges

Over the next fifty years, the African continent is poised to become a major player in the global economic arena. Leveraging its abundant natural resources, rapid population growth, increasing advancement of digital technologies, and growing regional economic integration, the continent possesses significant potential to emerge as a major economic hub. Nevertheless, obstacles such as weak infrastructure, political instability, administrative corruption, and dependence on raw material exports could impede the complete realization of this potential. In this article, drawing upon research findings published in leading international journals, we will conduct a detailed analysis of Africa's economic growth potential and the challenges ahead.

While many regions across the globe grapple with slowing economic growth, aging demographics, and stagnant production, Africa, driven by rapid population growth, technological advancements, and enhanced economic integration, is emerging and being recognized as a prominent economic force of the 21st century. The key drivers of Africa's economic growth over the coming fifty years and the key challenges that the continent may face are detailed below.

Africa's Economic Growth Potential:

Rapid Population Growth and Young Workforce

According to a 2023 World Bank report, Africa is projected to host over 40 percent of the global workforce by 2050. With the fastest population growth rate globally, the continent is projected to witness a significant increase in its population to 2.5 billion by 2050 and over 3 billion by 2075. This demographic shift presents numerous opportunities for developing domestic markets, strengthening industrial production, and enhancing productivity. While other regions of the world face the challenges of declining birth rates and aging populations, Africa enjoys a significant competitive advantage in terms of a young, affordable, and available workforce. The findings of the publication "Growth of the Economy" also support this point, asserting that countries with a young workforce and efficient educational and economic policies are capable of achieving sustainable economic growth. Therefore, targeted investment in education and public health in Africa can significantly increase labor productivity and pave the way for the realization of this immense potential.

Digital Development and the Technological Revolution in Africa

In recent years, technology startups in African countries such as Nigeria, Kenya, and South Africa have witnessed remarkable growth. According to the McKinsey Global Institute, Africa's digital technology sector could contribute over 5 percent of the continent's gross domestic product by 2050. The growth of digital financial services such as M-Pesa in Kenya and the expansion of high-speed internet in urban and rural areas highlight the continent's potential in this domain. Research from the "Institute of Economic and Political Information" indicates that increased access to information and communication technology can boost economic productivity and facilitate the development of new jobs. A pivotal development in Africa's economy is the growth of digital technology and innovative startups. Countries such as Nigeria, Kenya, and South Africa have become technology hubs on the continent, and startups active in the fields of fintech, e-commerce, and artificial intelligence are flourishing. Technology companies such as Google and Microsoft have also made significant investments in Africa.

Natural Resources and Foreign Investment Opportunities

Africa possesses 30 percent of the world's mineral reserves and 60 percent of arable land. Furthermore, countries such as China, the United States, Russia, Turkey, and the European Union are increasing their investments in Africa. According to research published in the Oxford Economic Papers[1], if Africa can establish sustainable economic policies and transparent legal frameworks for foreign investment, it can leverage these resources for its economic development.

Regional Trade and the Implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area Agreement

The African Continental Free Trade Area Agreement, which came into effect in 2021, by creating the world's largest free trade area with a value of $3.4 trillion, has the potential to add over $450 billion to the continent's economy by 2050. According to Frankel and Romer in the Quarterly Journal of Economics, increased trade between African countries will lead to improved productivity and enhanced innovation in production processes. The proper implementation of this agreement can accelerate the growth and development of industries in the continent while reducing African countries' dependence on raw material exports. The main goal of this agreement is to reduce trade barriers and facilitate commercial exchanges among African countries, which will ultimately lead to a decrease in reliance on raw material exports.

Economic Challenges of Africa:

Weak Infrastructure and Dependence on Raw Material Exports

Most African economies are dependent on the export of oil, gas, gold, and minerals, which renders them vulnerable to global price fluctuations. Furthermore, weak infrastructure in transportation, energy, and communications has hindered sustainable economic development.

Political Instability and Corruption

Military coups, civil wars, and non-transparent governments in some African countries have deterred foreign investment. According to a 2023 report by Transparency International, some of the most corrupt countries in the global Corruption Perception Index are located in Africa.

Influence of Foreign Powers and Increasing Debt

The debt of African countries to China, the International Monetary Fund, and other international financial institutions is increasing. Some countries, such as Zambia and Ethiopia, have faced financial crises in repaying their debts. This issue has led some analysts to warn about a "debt trap" in Africa.

Part Two: Iran-Africa Relations After the Establishment of the Thirteenth and Fourteenth Governments

Iran-Africa relations date back to the Pahlavi era and the establishment of the Non-Aligned Movement. After the 1979 Islamic Revolution, Iran sought to expand its relations with African countries, particularly in the diplomatic, economic, and cultural spheres. However, sanctions pressures, competition from other powers, and political developments in African countries have affected bilateral relations.

The early post-revolution period and the 1980s saw relations with the African continent largely based on the export of the revolution and cultural ties. However, the 1990s and 2000s, for various reasons, particularly the discourse focused on reconstruction and economic progress, became a priority for officials and high-ranking authorities. In 1996, the head of the "Reconstruction Government" (President Rafsanjani's administration) visited Africa. However, this was done without a clear strategy for developing relations with Africa. The Reformist Government (President Khatami's administration) also did not achieve success in this regard. The ninth and tenth governments (President Ahmadinejad's administrations) witnessed the most visits by various officials, from the head of state to other authorities, to African countries. The head of the twelfth government (President Rouhani) was scheduled to visit Africa in 2017, but it did not take place. In the thirteenth government, under the leadership of the martyred President Raisi and the martyred Foreign Minister Amir-Abdollahian, efforts began to expand cooperation with Africa based on economic foundations. Martyred President Raisi visited Uganda, Kenya, and Zimbabwe, and the martyred Foreign Minister traveled to Mali, Tanzania, and Zanzibar. Some actions were taken, but fate intervened. Iran's Relations with Key Countries in North Africa:

Egypt

Iran and Egypt have had limited diplomatic relations since the Islamic Revolution. During the thirteenth government, some steps were taken to improve relations, but significant progress has not yet been achieved. With the advent of the fourteenth government, speculations have arisen regarding the improvement of relations, particularly in the fields of energy and trade.

Morocco and Algeria

Iran-Morocco relations were severed in 2018 due to Iran's alleged support for the Polisario Front. During the tenure of the late President Raisi, these tensions did not decrease, and no significant change is expected during Mr. Pezeshkian's term. In contrast, Iran-Algeria relations have strengthened, particularly in the political and economic spheres, as Algeria also maintains a relatively independent policy towards the West.

Relations of the Islamic Republic of Iran with South Africa

South Africa is considered one of Iran's important partners in Africa. The two countries' economic relations, particularly in the energy sector, continue. With the formation of the fourteenth government, cooperation in trade and technology is expected to strengthen.

Relations with Ethiopia

Iran has made investments in education, health, and infrastructure in Ethiopia in recent years. The administration of the late President Raisi tried to expand its relations with this country, and the fourteenth government will likely continue this policy.

Opportunities and Challenges of Iran-Africa Relations

Opportunities:

• Increasing non-oil exports to Africa
• Expanding scientific, educational, health, and medical cooperation
• Cooperation in the energy and petrochemical sectors

Challenges:

• Competition with other powers such as the United States, China, Russia, and Turkey
• Economic sanctions and banking problems
• Political instability in some African countries

Conclusion

Africa is becoming one of the most important centers of economic development in the world, but significant challenges such as weak infrastructure, corruption, and competition from major powers have complicated its development path. In recent years, Iran has tried to strengthen its relations with African countries. During the term of the thirteenth government, relations between Iran and some African countries developed, and the fourteenth government is expected to continue this trend, given the sanctions and severe economic challenges. However, challenges such as sanctions and the influence of competitors will remain obstacles to extensive cooperation between Iran and Africa.

Mohammad Movahed, Senior Expert at the Office for Political and International Studies.

 (The opinions expressed are those of the authors and do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of the IPIS)

[1] Collier and Gunning (2019) -  Oxford Economic Papers: