As the Ukraine war enters its 40th month, the heavy shadow of attrition and stalemate has, more than ever, taken hold of the battlefronts. The wounds of damages and casualties remain fresh, and despite numerous diplomatic efforts and initiatives, there is no clear prospect for halting this devastating conflict – to the extent that even Trump implicitly expresses frustration with the complexity of the situation. Perhaps the primary root of this impasse should be sought in the parties' insistence on maximalist and unattainable demands. However, beyond public rhetoric, the objectives of the parties are quite clear: Trump entertains the ambition of ending this war at any cost, even by ignoring the conflict's roots – a belief rooted in his election promises which, if realized, might even bring him the Nobel Peace Prize.
Although this plan seems arduous and difficult, its chances of success, however slim, cannot be dismissed. On this path, Trump pays particular attention to Putin and calibrates his positions with half an eye on Putin's reactions. It is important to note that any potential success for Trump in the Ukraine dossier could have direct consequences for other international files, including indirect negotiations with the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Concurrently, Sergey Lavrov, Russia's Foreign Minister, announced that on Sunday, May 25, 2025, his country would send Ukraine a document containing Moscow's conditions for ending the offensive that began in February 2022. This action follows the completion of the largest prisoner exchange between the two countries, which commenced on Friday, May 23, 2025.
The Russian Foreign Minister stated: "As soon as the prisoner exchange is completed, we are ready to transmit the draft document that the Russian side is finalizing." According to Lavrov, this draft will outline the framework for a stable, comprehensive, and long-term agreement to resolve the Ukraine conflict.
Meanwhile, Ukraine is also reciprocally drafting a similar document – an action that is part of the agreements reached in direct negotiations with Russia in Istanbul in mid-May 2025.
In line with another of the Istanbul agreements, the two belligerent parties began the first phase of exchanging one thousand prisoners from each side last Friday (May 23, 2025). As a result of this phase, 270 soldiers and 120 civilians from each side have been released. According to announcements from both sides, this prisoner exchange process will continue on Saturday (May 24, 2025) and Sunday (May 25, 2025).
The Ukraine war has delayed the formation of a new consensus in Washington in recent years; however, Trump's new team is firmly resolved to make the revision of the United States' defense strategy its central mission. It is anticipated that Elbridge Colby, a figure who enjoys widespread support among influential circles of "new Republicans," will play a pivotal role in this process. Indeed, he is said to be a close advisor in the Pentagon and has direct communication with J.D. Vance, the Vice President.
Perhaps the key to understanding the transformation in transatlantic relations can be found in this very point. This development is not merely a reflection of the President's personal approach in the White House – with a tendency towards direct engagement with major powers and perhaps less attention to smaller actors – but rather stems from a coherent intellectual body with a distinctly non-Eurocentric strategic orientation behind it.
Pete Hegseth, the Secretary of Defense, during his first trip to Brussels in February 2025 to participate in the NATO defense ministers' meeting, spoke candidly about the new priorities of the United States under the Trump administration: "We are here today to frankly state that hard strategic realities no longer permit the United States to focus on European security." He also, in his first major speech after his confirmation as Secretary of Defense, emphasized the restoration of deterrence on America's southern borders, adding: "This Department has come to the understanding that we have spent decades defending others' borders around the world, while today we face an invasion of our own soil. We must accept that border security is national security. As the President has emphasized, we will achieve 100% operational control over our southern borders, and this must be the focal point of this Department."
From the European perspective, the most significant consequence of this situation is that the Pentagon now operates based on a philosophy that makes a clear distinction between "decisive" and "secondary" theaters of war. The fundamental message of this approach is that the US's main priority and resources will be directed towards the Indo-Pacific region and containing China, and in other domains, the Pentagon will be prepared to accept higher levels of risk.
It is noteworthy that Putin is apparently in no hurry to end the Ukraine war, especially as he sees international conditions as favorable to him. Meanwhile, the prospect of Trump's return to the White House and the potential approach of a Republican administration towards Europe, and specifically Ukraine, is considered an unexpected bonus for the Kremlin. From the European viewpoint, Putin harbors ambitions of complete domination over Ukraine, aiming to install a compliant government in Kyiv to turn it into another Belarus. However, achieving such an objective is not simple, even for the Russian war machine, especially since the achievements of more than three years of war have been far less than initial expectations, placing a daunting mission before Putin.
Conversely, Ukraine finds itself in one of the most precarious diplomatic situations in recent years – a predicament few analysts had foreseen. Kyiv faces the risk of being abandoned by the US and the weakness of a united Europe, while also needing to think about rebuilding its military capability and, ultimately, relying solely on its own internal strength. Despite all this, Zelenskyy hopes he can persuade Trump to at least continue the flow of military aid approved by the Biden administration and to ensure that Ukraine's interests, not just Russia's, are also considered in future negotiations – on which Kyiv insists.
In this regard, Western leaders have advised Zelenskyy not to prematurely reject any of Trump's potential proposals and instead, to try to cohesively steer the US President towards their desired positions. There is an understanding in Kyiv that Trump should not be criticized, regardless of how unconventional his ideas may be. They have learned that by praising and appreciating the American leader, they might perhaps irk Putin. Concurrently, European leaders are trying to convince Trump that the main obstacle on the path to peace is not Zelenskyy, but Putin himself.
It appears that since late February, following that tense meeting at the White House, Trump's attitude has undergone some changes, but these changes are not yet sufficient. Trump's mind has now become the main arena of the West-Russia confrontation – an unprecedented showdown whose outcome will determine not only the fate of Ukraine but the future of all of Europe. Nevertheless, the main players on this diplomatic stage are Putin and Trump, and the Istanbul negotiations clearly showed that these two have their fingers on the pulse of developments.
Ali Beman Eghbali Zarch, Head of Eurasia Studies Group
(The opinions expressed are those of the authors and do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of the IPIS)