An infinite tribute to the souls of the martyrs of the recent aggression against the Islamic Republic of Iran, including military and intelligence commanders, nuclear scientists, and especially the innocent women, men, and children.

It must be acknowledged that two special operations in June 2025 (Khordad 1404), one on Russian soil by Ukraine and the other in Iran by Israel and the United States, represent a decisive turning point in the strategy and methods of modern warfare. These events mark the end of the era of conventional warfare and confirm the dawn of a new age of "Third Millennium Warfare." The defining characteristic of this era is the prominence of the triad of drone technology, the digital age, and the element of intelligence and security. Unquestionably, this evolution necessitates that Islamic Iran undertake fundamental changes and reforms in its defense and security doctrine.

Furthermore, the continuation of diplomatic engagement on two fronts is of paramount importance: public diplomacy, through crafting a narrative of the unilateral and illegal aggression against our country in engagement with Islamic nations, neighbors, friends, and all peoples; and particularly, pursuing the condemnation of the aggressor and demanding reparations in specialized international forums, which, alongside thorough documentation, is doubly significant.

Political and military analysts worldwide have described both recent operations (Ukraine's attack on Russia and the Israeli-American attack on Iran), which were commanded and executed from kilometers away, as among the most complex military and intelligence operations. In Ukraine's case, an operation of this magnitude during the war was entirely unprecedented.

In the Ukrainian attack, the result of an 18-month planning phase, highly strategic targets were struck. These targets included Russia's fleet of strategic bombers (part of the country's nuclear triad, alongside land-based and submarine-launched missiles) and its nuclear arsenal, the largest in the world. In this assault, 117 drones were used, inflicting an estimated $6 to $7 billion in damage to this advanced equipment.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who personally oversaw the operation, subsequently announced that this success significantly helped in restoring the confidence of international partners in Ukraine's ability to continue the war. He also pointed to tactical details, such as the fact that the drones were concealed in the wooden roofs of trucks.

The roots of Israel's planning for an attack on Iran trace back to the early 1990s, when the regime's intelligence services first identified signs of Iran's program to develop nuclear capabilities. In the first phase, Israel initiated a sabotage campaign by establishing an extensive network of agents inside Iran, which included two explosions at a major uranium enrichment facility and the assassination of several Iranian scientists.

However, Israeli officials concluded that these efforts were insufficient and that direct airstrikes would be necessary to completely destroy Iran's nuclear program and eliminate its key scientists.

Preparations for such an operation faced significant challenges. As it was impossible to train pilots for a long-range mission within the limited geography of occupied Palestine, Israel began extensive exercises beyond its borders. In a prominent example in 2008, over 100 Israeli F-15 and F-16 jets flew 1,500 kilometers to Greece to test the air force's capability to strike Iran's nuclear facilities.

These exercises continued with increasing frequency, ultimately resulting in a detailed list of 250 targets. This list included not only nuclear facilities and missile launchers but also Iranian scientists and military commanders.

Several key themes emerge from both operations, necessitating countermeasures, learning from the damages incurred, and adopting preventive measures. It is clear that such complex operations are impossible for a single entity to carry out; in both cases, intelligence and military assistance and advisory from the Western axis played a crucial role.

1. The role of a fifth column and intelligence/security infiltrators was prominent, with active participation from foreign nationals.
2. Heavy transport fleets played a role in transferring military and drone equipment, moving the necessary assets to geographies near the operations over a considerable period.
3. Intelligence and security structures, despite evidence of threats, failed to take professional and operational preventive measures. In the military dimension, the air defense system and offensive military aircraft could have played a more prominent role in confronting enemy air attacks.
4. In the case of the Zionist regime's operation in Iran, an intelligence deception project, leveraging six rounds of indirect negotiations between Iran and the United States, also played a significant role.
5. Our country's officials and military commanders did not act comprehensively in taking necessary protective and security measures, and the Zionist regime, at a low cost and in the initial stages of its aggression, martyred many valuable IRGC commanders and nuclear scientists.
6. In both operations, the role of communication technology and telecommunication systems in the digital age was prominent.

In a final conclusion, it can be said that while the operation in Russia achieved some of its objectives, the situation in Iran was different. Iran's missile capabilities and their extraordinary performance, despite all enemy defensive measures, deterred the Zionist regime from continuing its aggression and forced it to request a ceasefire.

Amid this, two domestic factors played a key role:

First, the comprehensive national and public cohesion and resilience, which, alongside the exceptional performance of public service providers, ensured the country's stability. Of course, the continuous strengthening of this solidarity at all levels of society remains a necessity.

Second, the rapid reorganization of the country's military and intelligence command structure and the continued professional activity of these sectors, demonstrating their high degree of agility and efficiency. This agility is, in itself, a valuable and strategic component in the defense of Islamic and Iranian values.

Ali Beman Eghbali Zarch, Head of the Eurasia Studies Group

 (The opinions expressed are those of the authors and do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of the IPIS)