In recent months, the South Caucasus region has garnered increased attention from regional countries and surrounding powers. Noteworthy developments include the meeting of the leaders of Baku and Yerevan in the United Arab Emirates, consultations between the President of Turkey and the leaders of these nations, and even discussions with [Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham leader] al-Julani in Baku, alongside emerging tensions in Baku-Moscow relations. Furthermore, new remarks regarding the so-called "Zangezur Corridor" and its potential management, even by Western and foreign companies, along with talks of establishing the corridor next spring, are of heightened importance.

Regional and international interactions have entered a new era of competition where, much like technological advancement, the pace of political and security developments has accelerated. The international arena is entangled in multiple and diverse crises, including the 11-day imposed war on the Islamic Republic of Iran, the genocide in Gaza, the war in Ukraine, the U.S. tariff wars with the world (especially China and Europe), and extraordinary developments centered on Eurasia, such as those in the South Caucasus and West Asia. What is certain is that this region plays a prominent role in the geostrategy of the Eurasian axis. In the words of [Robert D.] Kaplan, the focal point for mastering international interactions has shifted from the Balkans to the South Caucasus and Central Asia. This region has long been part of Iran's civilizational sphere and a crossroads of cultural, religious, and ethnic commonalities, experiencing diverse transformations at various historical junctures. It now stands as a crucial buffer zone between the two valuable Black and Caspian Seas. Indeed, it can be said that it has and continues to play a very significant role in discussions about corridors, energy transit, and fundamentally, regional peace, stability, and balance. Since the beginning of the Ukraine crisis and the imposition of comprehensive Western sanctions against Russia, relations between Baku and Moscow have become more cohesive and stronger.

This region, rich in natural resources and development potential and part of Iran's historical and civilizational domain, witnessed new developments starting in the Persian year 1400 (2021-2022) with Azerbaijan's military operation against Armenia. The ultimate goal in the competition between the Turkish-Azeri-Armenian-Russian axis is to gain a larger share of dominance over the Eurasian region, which holds significant geopolitical and geo-economic importance. In the current climate, where we are witnessing signs of a new hot and cold war between Russia and the West, the three countries of the South Caucasus, and particularly Russia, are paying special attention to the foreign policy of the Islamic Republic of Iran as an important and influential hub of regional and international developments, alongside their bilateral relations. At the same time, the Russians are trying to enhance their role and capabilities in the region in competition with the United States, Turkey, and even China, and to closely monitor the movements of neighboring countries that show a leaning towards NATO.

In the current situation, certain countries in the region are pursuing specific objectives and interests through the news and developments related to the fictitious Zangezur Corridor, which naturally is not and will not be beneficial to the long-term security of the region. The Armenian government, having realized the adverse effects of this issue, has declared its opposition. Given the developments on the ground and the official positions of the leaders of the Islamic Republic of Iran—communicated at various levels, including by the Supreme Leader on several occasions to top officials from countries like Russia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Turkey—it seems there is little room for the operationalization of this fictitious corridor under the conditions desired by Baku. Naturally, any change in the region's geography, borders, or fundamental geostrategy is by no means acceptable to the Islamic Republic of Iran. A key principle of Iran's foreign policy has always been the preservation of countries' territorial integrity and the non-alteration of borders and regional geostrategies, including in this region, which plays a crucial role in regional peace and stability.

Meanwhile, the countries of the Caucasus and Central Asia are, wittingly or unwittingly, experiencing a sensitive period where their interests are being used as bargaining chips by foreign powers, especially the UK, France, the US, Russia, and the West. The recent developments will certainly not yield any significant gains for the people of the region, or at the very least, no country will emerge as a winner from these events. Moreover, these developments seriously harm the economic activities of these countries and, in the long term, will affect economic growth rates and the supply of energy and essential goods to Europe. Additionally, other sectors like the tourism industry will face a severe recession. It must also be acknowledged that a new phase of the Cold War has begun. By changing the global geostrategic map, it could, while shifting the roles of the power puzzle pieces in Eastern Europe, the Caucasus, and Central Asia, have dangerous consequences for humanity, including border changes and even the start of the first trans-regional war of the third millennium.

In recent years, the Islamic Republic of Iran has undertaken significant political and economic initiatives in the region, confirming the continuity of its balanced stance of active neutrality. This aims to foster consultations with regional leaders and strengthen comprehensive cooperation, a point emphasized in statements by our country's officials to Baku and Yerevan. Concurrently, various political and cultural dimensions, especially economic and trade exchanges with the three countries of the South Caucasus, including Armenia, have seen significant growth, in some cases doubling. There remains even greater potential for joint investment and collaborative economic and technological ventures. Furthermore, at the BRICS summit in Moscow in October 2024, the esteemed President of the Islamic Republic, in a meeting with leaders of important regional countries including the Prime Minister of Armenia, emphasized our country's commitment to the full-scale expansion of relations with its neighbors, including the three South Caucasus nations.

In any case, our country, while closely monitoring developments and adopting appropriate and timely positions, prioritizes the important approach of encouraging the parties to resolve their border and territorial disputes through dialogue, based on international conventions and regulations. This is because the comprehensive progress and advancement of the region depend on establishing sustainable peace and trust alongside collective participation.

In conclusion, while the regional situation is currently moving towards a particular complexity, historical experience suggests that the astute leaders of the surrounding countries must act in a way that prevents them from becoming bargaining chips for the great powers. On the other hand, it is essential for the Islamic Republic of Iran to strengthen all dimensions of its relations and focus more on the civilizational, cultural, developmental, and economic foundations of its ties with the countries of the South Caucasus and Central Asia.

Ali Beman Eghbali Zarch, Head of the Eurasia Studies Group

 (The opinions expressed are those of the authors and do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of the IPIS)