On Monday, July 14, 2025, Donald Trump announced the dispatch of new weapons to Ukraine, with the cost to be borne by the European Union, and threatened that those who purchase Russian products would be sanctioned until Russia accepts a peace agreement. This major policy shift stems from frustration with Russia's continuous attacks on Ukraine, and the threat of sanctions is accompanied by a 50-day grace period. In a joint press conference at the White House with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, Trump said, "They are Patriot missiles; they are everything, and I hope this will have an impact on Vladimir Putin." He added that his country produces the best and most advanced weapons in the world, which are set to be sent to the Ukrainian front.
Simultaneously, the U.S. President expressed his frustration with Russian President Vladimir Putin, threatening to impose severe sanctions of up to 100% on Russia if they do not reach an agreement within 50 days. He felt that they had come close to an agreement about four times in previous negotiations, yet they are still talking about it. For now, this is all rhetoric—until the missiles start falling on Kyiv.
Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev stated on Tuesday that Moscow does not care about what he described as a "theatrical ultimatum." Furthermore, Putin believes that no one, not even the Americans, has genuinely delved into the specifics of a peace plan for Ukraine. Therefore, he will persist until his demands are met. Putin remains confident that Russia's economy and military are strong enough to withstand new Western measures. Although Trump has had several phone calls with Putin and U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff has visited Moscow, the Russian leader believes that no substantive discussions based on the realities on the ground have taken place. There is no doubt that Putin values his relationship with Trump and had good talks with Witkoff, but Russia's interests remain the priority. The crucial issue is the scope of Putin's conditions for peace, which could include a legal commitment that NATO will not expand eastward, Ukraine's neutrality, limitations on Ukraine's armed forces, protection for Russian speakers, and the acceptance of Russia's territorial gains. It is noteworthy that since returning to the White House in January, following an election campaign focused on a quick end to the war, Trump has sought to mend relations with Russia, holding at least six phone calls with Putin.
On the other side of the conflict, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has stated that Ukraine will never recognize Russian sovereignty over occupied territories and that Kyiv has the sovereign right to decide whether to join NATO. In this new context, the European commitment to Ukraine's success in its campaign against Russia has been significant, a display of which was witnessed at the NATO summit. At the conclusion of the formal part of the summit, held on June 24 and 25 in The Hague, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte announced to reporters that NATO had agreed to increase its defense spending from 2% to 5% of annual GDP by 2035. He stated that the new Defense Investment Pledge would be decisive in ensuring effective deterrence and defense. This prompted Trump to say, "I have been asking them for years to increase their defense budget to five percent, and they are increasing it to 5 percent. That's a big jump from 2 percent."
This NATO summit in The Hague was the first that Trump attended since his re-election as U.S. President. It was also the first hosted by Rutte since his selection as the alliance's Secretary General.
The statement also mentioned that allies agree to submit annual plans outlining a credible and gradual path to achieving this goal. The trajectory and balance of expenditures under this plan will be reviewed in 2029, considering the strategic environment and updated capability targets. Concurrently, members reaffirm their enduring sovereign commitments to provide support to Ukraine, whose security contributes to their own. To this end, when calculating allied defense spending, direct contributions to Ukraine's defense and its defense industry will be included. Furthermore, NATO commits to rapidly expanding transatlantic defense industrial cooperation, leveraging emerging technologies and a spirit of innovation to advance collective security, and pledges to work towards eliminating barriers to defense trade among allies and leveraging its partnerships to enhance defense industrial cooperation.
On the battlefield, with the limitation of U.S. arms shipments to Ukraine since early 2024, Russia has the upper hand. Its war-ready economy is outpacing NATO's munitions production, especially artillery shells. According to data from DeepStateMap, Russia currently controls approximately one-fifth of Ukraine's territory and has advanced about 1,415 square kilometers in the last three months. Russia now controls Crimea (annexed in 2014), the entire Luhansk region, over 70% of the Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions, as well as parts of the Kharkiv, Sumy, and Dnipropetrovsk regions. Putin's public stance is that these five regions—Crimea and the four eastern Ukrainian regions—are part of the Russian Federation, and Kyiv must withdraw before peace talks can begin. According to these sources, Putin could continue the war until Ukrainian fortifications collapse and then expand his territorial ambitions. For now, Russia will act based on Ukraine's perceived weakness. If faced with serious resistance, the offensive could halt after conquering the eastern regions. But if the fortifications fall, Dnipropetrovsk, Sumy, and Kharkiv could also fall.
Meanwhile, experts are skeptical that Trump would impose 100% tariffs on Russia's trading partners if Putin does not agree to a ceasefire in Ukraine in under 50 days. The massive volume of trade between China and Russia—nearly $250 billion annually, including oil imports—would turn the imposition of such tariffs by the U.S. into a new conflict with Beijing. It is unlikely that Trump would risk damaging relations with China, the world's second-largest economy, to support Ukraine, a country the U.S. president has long said is not vital to the United States.
On Tuesday, July 15, 2025, in Beijing, Chinese leader Xi Jinping told Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov that China and Russia must strengthen mutual support. He stated that Beijing and Moscow should implement the important consensus reached with President Vladimir Putin and bolster mutual support in multilateral forums. The Chinese leader also said the two countries should unite the countries of the Global South and promote the development of the international order in a more just and reasonable direction. According to Russian sources, Sergey Lavrov had discussed the Ukraine issue and relations with the United States with his Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi, on Sunday. Currently, China, Russia's key diplomatic and economic ally, has never condemned the invasion that has been ongoing in Ukraine since February 2022, nor has it called for the withdrawal of Russian forces. However, Beijing regularly advocates for a cessation of hostilities while its supporters accuse Kyiv of fueling the conflict by arming the Ukrainian army to repel Russian forces.
Ali Beman Eghbali Zarch, Head of the Eurasia Studies Group
(The opinions expressed are those of the authors and do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of the IPIS)