With infinite salutations to the souls of the martyrs of the recent aggression against the Islamic Republic of Iran, including military and intelligence commanders, nuclear scientists, and especially innocent women, men, and children.
It must be acknowledged that two special operations in the final month of spring in the year 1404 of the Solar Hijri calendar (2025 AD)—one in Russia by Ukraine, and the other in Islamic Iran by the Zionist regime and the United States—mark a decisive moment in military strategy and warfare.They signal an end to the era of classic wars and confirm a new era of Third-Millennium Warfare, characterized by the triangle of drone knowledge, the digital age, and the intelligence-security element. Without a doubt, in such a process, Islamic Iran requires fundamental changes and reforms to its national defense and security doctrine. On the other hand, the continuation of diplomatic action on two fronts is of doubled importance: first, public diplomacy through narrative-building about the unilateral and illegal aggression against our country in engagement with Islamic nations, neighbors, friends, and all peoples; and second, pursuing the condemnation of the aggressor and demanding reparations in specialized international forums, alongside comprehensive documentation.
Political and military analysts worldwide have described both operations, conducted kilometers away from their command and execution centers, as among the most complex military and intelligence operations, with the one against Russia being unprecedented in the course of the war. In that operation, planned over 18 months, Russia's strategic bomber fleet—part of the country's triad alongside land-based missiles and submarines—as well as its nuclear arsenal, the largest in the world, were attacked by 117 drones, causing an estimated $6 to $7 billion in damages to this advanced equipment. After the operation, over which he personally presided, Zelenskyy said that the operation, which included drones hidden in the wooden roofs of trucks, significantly helped restore partners' confidence in Ukraine's ability to continue the war.
Regarding the Zionist regime's aggression against the Islamic Republic of Iran, the planning for the attacks began in the early 1990s. Such an attack was assessed as extremely high-risk and pursued the objectives of assassinating high-ranking military commanders and destroying nuclear capabilities. It is unclear how Israel could have achieved its primary objective if the operation had not compelled Donald Trump to bomb Iran's nuclear facilities. The roots of this operation go back to the 1990s when Israeli intelligence services first detected Iran's initial efforts to establish a program for developing nuclear weapons. The Zionist regime then began to build an extensive network of agents inside Iran to carry out a campaign of sabotage, which included two explosions at one of Iran's main uranium enrichment centers and the assassination of several Iranian scientists. However, regime officials concluded that these efforts were insufficient and that they had to resort to airstrikes to completely destroy Iran's nuclear program and eliminate the scientists leading it. To ensure the success of this operation, training pilots for such a mission within the geography of the occupied territories was impossible. Therefore, in 2008, more than 100 Israeli F-15 and F-16 jets flew 1,500 kilometers to Greece to test their air force's ability to attack Iran's nuclear facilities from the air. Such exercises continued with increasing frequency, and they compiled a list of 250 targets they wanted to destroy, including Iranian scientists and military leaders, nuclear facilities, and missile launchers.
Several prominent issues emerged from both operations, demanding necessary measures and lessons to be learned from the damages incurred, alongside the adoption of preventive measures. Of course, such complex operations are impossible for a single entity to carry out, and in both cases, intelligence and military assistance and advice from the Western axis played a significant role.
- A. The role of the fifth column and security-intelligence infiltrators was prominent, with active participation from foreign nationals.
- B. Heavy transport fleets played a role in transferring military and drone equipment, and over a considerable period, the necessary equipment was moved to the geography near the operational area.
- C. Despite evidence of threats, intelligence and security structures did not take preventive measures in a professional and operational manner. In the military dimension, the air defense system and offensive military aircraft could have played a more prominent role in confronting enemy air attacks.
- D. In the case of the Zionist regime's operation in Iran, an intelligence deception project, utilizing six rounds of indirect negotiations between Iran and the U.S., also played a crucial role.
- E. Our country's officials and military commanders did not act comprehensively in taking necessary protective and security measures, and the Zionist regime, at a low cost and in the early stages of the aggression, martyred many valuable IRGC commanders and nuclear scientists.
- F. In both operations, the role of communication technology and telecommunication systems in the digital age was prominent.
In a concise summary, it must be said that the operation in Russia ended with partial success in reaching its objectives. However, in Iran, the missile capability and the extraordinary performance of this capacity, despite all the preventive and interceptive measures of the entire West and the enemy, deterred the Zionist regime from continuing its operation and led it to call for a ceasefire. In this process, the complete popular and national cohesion and resilience, along with the outstanding performance of all service-providing bodies, played a prominent role. We still need to strengthen this at various levels and strata of society.
On the other hand, the reorganization of the country's military and intelligence command structure and the continuation of normal and professional activity in these sectors demonstrate the agility of the country's command and operational structure. This is assessed as a valuable component in the defense of Islamic and Iranian values.
Ali Beman Eghbali Zarch, Head of the Eurasia Studies Group
(The opinions expressed are those of the authors and do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of the IPIS)