In recent months, the United States has introduced a significant shift in international economic policy by imposing a new wave of trade tariffs against most countries worldwide. This action, aimed at reducing the trade deficit, protecting domestic industries, and reshoring manufacturing, has also impacted the African continent. Indeed, with the exception of Burkina Faso and Seychelles, all African nations have been subjected to this new policy. This article examines the short- and medium-term effects of these tariffs on the economies of Africa.

Based on the International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977, as of April 2, 2025, the United States has applied a base tariff of 10 percent on nearly all imports from almost every country. In addition to this base rate, higher tariffs have been designated for countries with the largest trade surpluses with the U.S. or those perceived by policymakers to benefit from unfair trade barriers.

Consequently, the U.S. government has imposed tariffs on imports from 50 African countries. These include a 10% base rate on nearly all imports, with higher tariffs ranging from 11% to 50% levied in cases of perceived trade imbalances. These tariffs cover almost all goods, with a few exceptions: specific goods subject to separate regulations; steel, aluminum, automobiles, and auto parts, which were already covered by specific tariffs; copper, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and timber, which may be subject to separate tariff policies in the future; precious metals, energy resources, and certain rare minerals not available domestically in the United States.

Among these measures, Lesotho in Africa has been hit with the highest rate of 50%, equal to the tariffs imposed on China and the European Union, and higher than countries like Vietnam (49%), Taiwan (48%), and Japan (47%), all of which have larger trade surpluses with the U.S. However, the effects of these tariffs on African nations will be deeper and more concerning due to structural and historical reasons.

First, trade between the U.S. and African countries had primarily developed under the framework of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA). Enacted in 2000, this law provided preferential, tariff-free access for thousands of African export products to the U.S. market. With the implementation of the new tariffs, not only will demand for African imports decrease, but the very foundation of AGOA is being called into question.

Second, many African countries are heavily dependent on imports and global supply chains. The increase in tariffs and the weakening of international trade will disrupt these chains, reduce global growth, and intensify inflationary pressures. This trend, especially for low-income African countries that were vulnerable during the COVID-19 pandemic, means higher prices and restricted access to essential goods.

The African Union, under the leadership of the Angolan President and with the new Chairperson of the AU Commission, has convened an emergency meeting to assess the situation. African countries could enter into negotiations with the U.S. government, seeking new preferential access similar to the exemptions granted to Canada and Mexico. This could be framed by emphasizing mutual benefits, as trade with Africa, contrary to popular belief, is also advantageous for the U.S. In addition to addressing this challenge, the continent can diversify its exports and strengthen intra-continental trade through the full implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). While losing the lucrative U.S. market is damaging, BRICS member countries, particularly China and India, offer significant potential as alternative markets. Strategic considerations have also come to the forefront. Coordination among African nations and collective action through frameworks like the African Union or Regional Economic Communities can provide necessary alignment. This moment is a defining one for the future of global trade and Africa's position within it.

A Narrative of Tangible Impacts: The Case of Lesotho:

Among the countries most severely affected by the new U.S. tariffs, the situation in Lesotho has drawn the most attention. A small, landlocked, and predominantly rural country in Southern Africa, Lesotho is one of the world's poorest nations. A significant portion of its exports consists of denim fabric used in the production of jeans for famous American brands. The country now faces a staggering 50% tariff, a rate that analysts believe will completely devastate its fragile economy. To understand the scale of this one-sided dependency, one need only consider that last year Lesotho imported just $3 million from the U.S. while exporting $240 million to it. These figures show that Lesotho is a marginal player in global trade. Jacques Nel, head of Africa macroeconomics at Oxford Economics, explains the imbalance: "The issue is not the size of the tariffs. The reality is that Lesotho simply does not have the financial capacity to import from the U.S. They only produce for and export to America." The issue's significance was highlighted in a prominent article in The New York Times.

The textile industry, particularly denim production, is the largest private-sector employer in Lesotho. It flourished after the passage of AGOA in 2000, a law designed to bolster industrial manufacturing in sub-Saharan Africa. But with the law's imminent expiration and the imposition of new tariffs, the industry's future is uncertain. Lesotho's Minister of Trade, Mokhethi Shelile, emphasized that 70% of the production from the country's 11 textile factories is exported to the U.S., adding, "We are a small economy. We must engage with the U.S. government."

Without exports to the U.S., Lesotho's economy faces a severe blow. Other African textile exporters like Madagascar (hit with a 47% tariff) and Kenya (10%) are also vulnerable. South Africa, with more diverse exports to the U.S. including vehicles and agricultural products, is also impacted. In contrast, countries whose primary exports are energy and rare minerals have been exempted due to U.S. domestic industrial needs.

While the U.S. imported only $39 billion from Africa last year, China has adopted a different policy. Last December, Beijing completely eliminated its import tariffs on goods from 33 African countries, deepening its economic ties with the continent. Michelle Gavin, a senior fellow for Africa policy studies at the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington, told the BBC, "It is very hard at this point to discern any kind of coherent global economic strategy." Gavin warned that China, as Africa's largest trading partner, could exploit this trade vacuum. "This feels a lot more like writing off a massive region of the world," she said.

AGOA has always been cited as a key tool of U.S. soft power, especially against the growing influence of China and Russia in Africa. The law has historically enjoyed broad bipartisan support among American lawmakers. While the new tariffs are causing turmoil in the global economic order, it is unlikely that Africa's specific needs will be a priority for world powers. If AGOA becomes ineffective or expires, Africa will be forced to rely on its internal capacities and truly realize the promise of its continental free trade area. Alongside this, African nations must intensify efforts to find new trading partners or expand existing markets.

As reported by Gold News, citing Diamond World, this U.S. action is expected to significantly harm the small, landlocked African nation whose economy is heavily dependent on exports, especially textiles and diamonds. As mentioned, Lesotho, with a population of about two million and a GDP of two billion dollars, is among the several African countries hit hardest by the new U.S. reciprocal tariff policy. In 2024, it exported $237 million worth of goods to the U.S.—over 10% of its GDP—primarily through textile manufacturing for brands like Levi's. This heavy tariff threatens thousands of jobs in Lesotho's apparel sector, its largest private employer. This move also signals the de facto collapse of AGOA. The tariff, combined with previous reductions in USAID funding, deepens the pressure on Lesotho's fragile economy and health system.

A Few Points

• On April 2, 2025, the United States imposed a 10% base tariff on all goods, as well as higher tariffs on certain specific imports.
• South Africa was among the countries severely affected, facing a 31% tariff on its goods. This is expected to negatively impact key exports such as vehicles, precious metals, machinery, and citrus fruits.
• However, the South African government has announced it does not intend to retaliate for now. At a joint press conference in Johannesburg, Minister of Trade Parks Tau and Minister of International Relations Ronald Lamola emphasized that they would pursue negotiation instead of retaliation.
• According to South Africa's Daily Maverick newspaper, while experts warn that the U.S. tariffs will likely increase inflation and unemployment, the government in Pretoria believes that engagement and dialogue are the best course of action. Trade Minister Tau stated, "I think for us to just decide on reciprocal tariffs is a very risky exercise. Our program is to engage to find solutions." The South African foreign minister noted that the new tariffs effectively nullify the benefits of AGOA, which is set to expire in September, and that the extension of the 2000 trade act now seems highly unlikely.
• The U.S. is South Africa's second-largest trading partner after China. As the most industrialized nation in Africa, South Africa has previously expressed a desire for a bilateral trade agreement with the U.S.
• The ministers also stressed that U.S. policies underscore the need to accelerate efforts to diversify South Africa's export markets, citing Asia and the Middle East as potential opportunities.
• Experts in the UK view the tariff war as a cause of turbulence in global trade. Asian countries such as India, Taiwan, and Indonesia have also announced they will not impose reciprocal tariffs on U.S. goods.

Recent changes in international trade policies, particularly the imposition of import tariffs by the United States, will undoubtedly impact the global trade system. Although the stated goal is to strengthen domestic industries, the consequences will extend far beyond America's borders, affecting various countries, especially dependent and weaker economies that benefited from exporting to the U.S. Nevertheless, it remains to be seen what consequences these developments will have for the structure of international trade.

Beyond the economic implications, what is unfolding is a sign of a transformation in the very concepts that have served as the cornerstones of the global trade order. Values such as free trade, which for decades were considered accepted and desirable principles, are now facing unprecedented challenges. These developments show that even beliefs that once seemed self-evident can be re-evaluated in light of geopolitical shifts, national interests, and the partisan discourse of global powers.

Mohammad Movahed, Senior Expert, Institute for Political and International Studies

 (The opinions expressed are those of the authors and do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of the IPIS)