As the global stage confronts major developments such as the crises in Gaza and Ukraine, peace in the Caucasus, and the meeting between Trump and Putin, new opportunities are also taking shape. It is a fact that crises invariably create opportunities for some nations; just as in the Ukraine war, countries like China, India, and Turkey have secured significant benefits by adopting a balanced approach.
India stands out as a prime example of this strategy. By capitalizing on Western sanctions against Russia and purchasing discounted energy, India managed to increase its trade volume with Moscow from $13 billion in 2021 to $60 billion in 2024. This remarkable surge has made Russia India's fourth-largest trading partner. The case of India confirms the principle that astute, interest-driven diplomacy can create exceptional opportunities out of international crises.
Following the announcement of new sanctions against Russia and an increase in import tariffs on Indian goods by the Trump administration, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi reacted swiftly. Last Friday, he held a phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin, expressing his desire to host him later this year. After the call, Modi wrote on social media: "I had a very good and detailed conversation with my friend, President Putin, and I thanked him for the information he shared regarding Ukraine."
This diplomatic move by India was a response to the doubling of tariffs on its exports to the United States, which now stand at 50%. Donald Trump cited India's oil imports from Russia as the reason for this decision, accusing Moscow of financing the war against Ukraine. Meanwhile, importing cheap energy from Russia has resulted in billions of dollars in savings for the Indian economy and has helped stabilize domestic fuel prices.
These events can be analyzed within the context of the deep-seated historical and strategic ties between Delhi and Moscow. The two countries have maintained a close relationship since the Soviet era, and Russia remains one of the principal suppliers of arms to the Indian military.
With a fundamental shift in its foreign policy priorities after the Ukraine crisis, Moscow has placed special emphasis on strengthening the capacity and international role of economic blocs like BRICS, led by emerging powers, the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), and other international bodies. Russia has also prioritized mechanisms that support regional integration within the framework of friendly multilateral institutions, pursuing active dialogue and engagement in the Asia-Pacific, Latin America, Africa, and the Middle East.
In this vein, Russia continues to build a privileged strategic partnership with the Republic of India, aiming to expand interactions across all fields based on mutual benefit, with a special focus on increasing trade volume and joint investment in technology. Concurrently, ensuring Delhi remains resilient against the disruptive policies of unfriendly states and their affiliated institutions is a key objective for Moscow.
Despite mounting trade pressures from the United States aimed at compelling Delhi to reduce its ties with Moscow, India has confirmed it will host Russian President Vladimir Putin. This announcement came shortly after Donald Trump imposed a new wave of tariffs on Indian imports in retaliation for its oil purchases from Russia. The Kremlin considers its relationship with India to be strategic and privileged.
During a visit to Moscow on Thursday, India’s National Security Advisor, Ajit Doval, confirmed that President Putin is scheduled to visit India. The Indian official stated that the visit has been agreed upon, though a date has not yet been set, suggesting it could take place in late August. "We are very excited and happy to hear the news of His Excellency President Putin's visit to India," Doval added.
Russia has consistently supported India's positions. In Moscow, the Russian government described Trump's recent statements as a "crude attempt to exert pressure on a strategic partner." According to the Kremlin, the measures announced by the U.S. are intended to punish India for defending its energy independence and have no real connection to Ukraine. Russia has also defended its strategic cooperation with India. In a meeting with Doval, Sergei Shoigu, Secretary of the Russian Security Council, stated: "Russia and India are united by strong bonds of friendship that have stood the test of time. For our country, strengthening our strategic, privileged, and special cooperation with India is a priority." He also stressed that Russia is determined to continue active collaboration aimed at creating a new, more just, and stable world order, ensuring the supremacy of international law, and jointly combating contemporary challenges and threats. The foundation for this trust-based dialogue, he noted, is the regular contact between President Vladimir Putin and Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
For its part, India accuses the West of hypocrisy. Previously, India had rebuked Western nations critical of its significant trade relations with Russia, reminding them of their own continued purchases of Russian products like natural gas and uranium.
After China, India is the largest buyer of Russian oil. Last year, approximately 36% of India's oil imports came from Russia, a substantial increase from around 2% in the years preceding the Ukraine war. Western sanctions, particularly the price cap imposed on Russian oil below market rates, made the commodity more attractive for Indian firms, enabling them to save billions of dollars.
Ali Beman Eghbali Zarch, Head of the Eurasia Studies Group
(The opinions expressed are those of the authors and do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of the IPIS)